Smartphone market segmentation & Gphone by the numbers

Digging deeper on Who has the most to lose because of the Google Phone or Gphone story.

First there are several numbers and they are all different:

Total number of smart phones shipped: (114 Million) ~10% of the total mobile handset market. Growing at ~50% annually through 2010. – IDC

ABI Research forecasts that the
whole smartphone market segment will grow from 218 million units in
2007 to 426 million units in 2012. – ABI research.

Gartner (see below): 48 Million in 2006, 64 Million in 2007 and expected to be 100+ Million by 2007

Zelos research:
Sales of full-feature handsets
will grow to about 290 million in 2008, or 42.5 percent of all
handsets, from about 10 million in 2003

Annual Growth of Smart Phones.

2005: ~40+ Milllion

2006 64 Million (Canaly’s)

2007: 114 Million (NYTimes)

Market Segments:

1. By geography (From Gartner and Telephia)
a) Japan 31%
b) Europe 27%
c) North America 19%

d) Other

2) By device vendor (From Canaly’s)
a) Nokia ~40%
b) RIM (Blackberry) 6.5%
c) Motorola 5.3%
d) Palm 5%
e) Microsoft < 5%
f) Other

3) By operating system ( IDC) and ( Canaly’s)
a) Symbian ~60%
b) Microsoft ~12%
c) RIM (Blackberry) ~7%
d) Linux ~6%
e) Palm ~5%

4) By user demographic of all mobile (not just smart phones)
a) Communication (phone & camera, text message) centric
b) Entertainment (music, video, games) centric
c) Information (email, internet, applications*) centric

Looking now at this analysis, I would say the biggest losers because of GPhone would be Motorola, Palm & from an OS perspective I think Google will eat into some of the Linux and Symbian leadership.