Digging deeper on Who has the most to lose because of the Google Phone or Gphone story.

First there are several numbers and they are all different:

Total number of smart phones shipped: (114 Million) ~10% of the total mobile handset market. Growing at ~50% annually through 2010. – IDC

ABI Research forecasts that the
whole smartphone market segment will grow from 218 million units in
2007 to 426 million units in 2012. – ABI research.

Gartner (see below): 48 Million in 2006, 64 Million in 2007 and expected to be 100+ Million by 2007

Zelos research: Sales of full-feature handsets
will grow to about 290 million in 2008, or 42.5 percent of all
handsets, from about 10 million in 2003


Annual Growth of Smart Phones.

2005: ~40+ Milllion

2006 64 Million (Canaly’s)

2007: 114 Million (NYTimes)

Market Segments:

1. By geography (From Gartner and Telephia)
a) Japan 31%
b) Europe 27%
c) North America 19%

d) Other

2) By device vendor (From Canaly’s)
a) Nokia ~40%
b) RIM (Blackberry) 6.5%
c) Motorola 5.3%
d) Palm 5%
e) Microsoft < 5%
f) Other

3) By operating system ( IDC) and ( Canaly’s)
a) Symbian ~60%
b) Microsoft ~12%
c) RIM (Blackberry) ~7%
d) Linux ~6%
e) Palm ~5%

4) By user demographic of all mobile (not just smart phones)
a) Communication (phone & camera, text message) centric
b) Entertainment (music, video, games) centric
c) Information (email, internet, applications*) centric

Looking now at this analysis, I would say the biggest losers because of GPhone would be Motorola, Palm & from an OS perspective I think Google will eat into some of the Linux and Symbian leadership.