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Prediction of Global Economy in 2024, Indonesia The First ASEAN Country Most Confident to Create This Program

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Prediction of Global Economy in 2024

In 2024, prediction of global economy is estimated to increase by 5% from the previous year. The global economy in 2024 is estimated to still be in a weak position, where even though inflation has moderated or decreased, this has not necessarily reduced interest rates which have soared quite high in the last 18 months.

If you agree with our opinion in this article, sure, for us global economy in 2024 should take be high position after the pandemic had done. But many countries hardly build their economy to high positions. Is that right? Let’s read more deeply into are we have to say that is true or not, and how that happen?

Introduction

Countries in the world are trying to improve the economy by selling finished goods such as oil exports, basic commodities and MSME products.

In 2024 there will be a slowdown that will reduce real GDP growth to below 1%, especially amidst the sloping economic outlook for the US—as one of Japan’s main partners—. However, growth of around 1% will resume in 2025 with global demand recovering.

What is more worrying is China’s economic development. This country with a large population has major problems in the real estate sector which will take at least four to six years to resolve. The restructuring process—including recapitalization—of battered large developers takes quite a long time due to the complexity of the issues.

To illustrate, housing construction in the relatively poor Guizhou Province can take more than 20 years to complete. Meanwhile, some other provinces, such as Jiangxi and Hebei, need at least ten years.

There are so many incentives and stimuli provided by the Chinese Government, both monetary stimulus, in the form of a low benchmark interest rate of 2.5% with a weighted average minimum reserve requirement (GWM) ratio of 7.4% and foreign currency GWM of 4%, as well as fiscal stimulus in the form of reduction Tax payments continue to be disbursed to encourage economic recovery.

A rating agency, Fitchs Ratings estimates global economic growth in 2024 at 2.4% yOy. You can see on this below, sure this is expressed directly through a quote:

Policy rates are almost at their peak but the pace of decline will be much slower and shallower than the increase since the start of 2022. Interest rates will not return to pre-pandemic levels, even in the medium term that is very likely.

Estimated by Fitchs Ratings
Estimated by Fitchs Ratings

This institution estimates that even America itself experienced a shrinkage of 0.5% in early January 2024. This is because of Russia limits trade with America through the export-import market.

But the resilience of US growth reflects renewed fiscal easing, consumers’ willingness to continue tapping excess savings and strong private sector finances. So far the impact of monetary tightening through the ‘cash flow’ channel on increasing debt servicing costs has been limited.

For this reason, based on the graph above, growth has slowed slightly to 2.4% with an increase in real interest rates, but currently we estimate that growth will remain positive until 2024.

Lets Reflections on Asian Countries

Global Economy by Country
Global Economy by Country

Based on the visual capitalist data above, India is the top country with quite rapid economic growth.

Talking about economic growth, India seems to be a star that is shining brightly in the global economic sky. The country has not only improved its economy, but has soared brilliantly. Why? Many factors contribute to India’s booming economic growth.

One of them is demographics. Imagine, India is home to more than a billion people. Amazing, right? This large population provides an unlimited market for goods and services, fueling a constant pulse of economic activity.

Not only that, India is also experiencing a surge in the technology sector. The government and private companies have pumped massive investments into the information technology industry, making India one of the world’s leading technology hubs. Combine this with the start-up boom taking place in the country, and you can see why India is a magnet for investors from all over the world.

Meanwhile, below is China, this country is predicted to increase by 4% because China continues to succeed in controlling the virus. This epidemic can help China strengthen its position in the global economy.

It is possible that American and European companies will focus their orientation towards China because of the country’s potential, as a source of significant growth in the post-pandemic world.

China’s jump in share of global output is just one feature of the extraordinary achievements its economy has achieved over the past year. Plus, China is also successful in the cellphone and Android sales market, with 8.9 million smartphone units shipped in the three month period ending in October 2023. IDC said vendors competed aggressively in almost all price segments.

How about Economy in Indonesia?

How about our country? We speak the truth, but we think you will not believe us. Sure however, Indonesia became the first ASEAN representative to succeed in strengthening the global economy in 2024.

From the data above, Indonesian high 14% to be a strengthen the global economy this year. In our opinion, the increase in this figure means that Indonesia’s potential can be maximized in the field of pharmaceuticals and chemicals produced from nature.

Indonesian also has abundant natural resources in the forest to be used as medicine. Even the European Union and China recognize Indonesia as a strong competitor in the global economy. The European Union also uses Airbus Indonesia products compared to other countries. This is proof that Indonesia is competitive.

Prediction of Global Economy: Indonesian will be the Most Confident in 2024

Indonesian has undertaken significant structural reforms in recent years. These steps include simplifying regulations, opening more sectors to foreign investment, and improving infrastructure. All of this opens the door to more dynamic and sustainable economic growth.

Next, we have to talk about economic diversification. The Indonesian government has directed efforts to no longer depend on a single economic sector. Instead, they have encouraged the development of other sectors such as tourism, agriculture and manufacturing. This diversification provides greater economic resilience to global shocks.

Not to forget, we must also mention investment in human resources. Strengthened education and training programs have improved the quality of Indonesia’s workforce. A skilled and productive workforce is a valuable asset for sustainable economic growth.

Apart from that, it cannot be ignored that Indonesia’s geographical position provides significant advantages. Located between two oceans and with a region rich in natural resources, Indonesia has great potential for rapidly growing international trade.

However, of course, there are challenges to be faced. For example, Indonesia still needs to improve its infrastructure to support sustainable economic growth. Also, it is important for the government to continue to improve the investment climate and increase political stability.

The Presence of a New President Adds Dominance

Don’t forget why we say all opinion to put into here, the important things is a new presence of new president come to our country. We can speak loud with honest!

Indonesia’s increasing strengthening of the global economy was also added to by the presence of a new president, Prabowo Subianto. Considering that Indonesia chose Prabowo Subianto to be the next president for the 2025 program.

Self-confidence brings economic growth fast, Prabowo presents a downstream program with strategic keys so that Indonesia can become a developed, prosperous and prosperous country. This is in line with the strategic program policies pushed by the current government of President Joko Widodo. Prabowo expressed this in front of the media crew that his new program would eradicate poverty.

The aim of independence, apart from protecting all of Indonesia’s blood, is to make our nation prosperous and intelligent. An independent nation is a nation that is able to eliminate poverty among its people. The implementation of down streaming or processing of natural resources in the country can increase added value for the people,” said Prabowo to bestengagingcommunities, Thursday (March, 19).

Foreign countries, according to Prabowo, would be furious if Indonesia implemented down streaming. They want Indonesia to sell raw materials at low prices, for this reason the new president wants this program to exist.

Hirilization Program and Prabowo Become President Make Indonesia Confidence Become a Strong Global Economy in 2024

First of all, let’s talk about the “Hirillization Program”. This term may sound foreign to some people, but it actually refers to a broad and intensive infrastructure development strategy designed to accelerate a country’s economic growth.

In a political context, downstream programs are often used to convey ambitious development promises and focus on infrastructure development including roads, railways, ports, airports and other resources that support economic growth.

When we talk about Prabowo’s superiority to become president, we have to consider the subjective views and various arguments debated by his supporters. One argument that often arises is firm and authoritarian leadership which is thought to bring stability and firmness in facing internal and external challenges.

In addition, Prabowo is often considered a strong and experienced figure in the military field, which can be interpreted as superiority in terms of national security and state defense. His supporters may also refer to his political vision which is considered bold and innovative in dealing with national issues.

However, it is important to remember that assessments of Prabowo’s merits as a presidential candidate are highly subjective and vary depending on the individual’s point of view and their political views.

Regardless, discussions about a candidate’s merits should include a careful and comprehensive analysis of his or her programs as well as the candidate’s track record and competencies. Prabowo also sees that down streaming can be the future in Indonesia with the natural wealth that Indonesia has.

The development of the automotive industry towards environmental friendliness by replacing fossil energy with batteries is an opportunity for Indonesia to develop its automotive industry.

We can see that future developments in the industry will lead to the electric automotive industry and Indonesia is in a competitive position to meet that,” explained Prabowo.

Apart from that, his party has also created industrial trees for 21 superior commodities which can be offered for downstream processing. Some of them include copper, nickel, bauxite, tin and seaweed.

Conclusion

At this point we can conclude, basically, Indonesia has become a country that is developing economically. The proof is that during the 2019 pandemic, Indonesia did not experience financial bankruptcy. The global economy in 2024 will also grow rapidly with new programs that have been designed by the government.

Don’t forget with the existence of factors that support Indonesia’s fortunes, that the global economy will increase significantly, one of which is Indonesia’s very strategic location, and supported by very abundant natural wealth, it is very natural that Indonesia is very confident. of economic growth.

Apart from that, with the downstream program promoted by Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, nothing is impossible, if Indonesia is economically independent and progresses rapidly. Apart from Prabowo Subianto’s experience, significant structural reforms in recent years have also supported Indonesia’s rapid prediction of global economy progress.

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The Future of Indonesia Economy and Strength of USD

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The Future of Indonesia Economy

The weakening of the Rupiah always becomes bad news for the future of Indonesia economy. Even though this is not the first time, it can do a huge damage to the local economy especially during high inflation right now.

According to the economists in Indonesia, they already warn that the recent weakening of the Rupiah against the USD could put more pressure on people’s purchasing power, along with the high prices of imported goods.

Which Sectors will be Affected for the future of Indonesia economy?

The strengthening of the dollar will clearly affect the future of Indonesia economy. This is because this country is still quite dependent on imports. If the Rupiah exchange rate weakens, various sectors that depend on imports will suffer major losses.

So, what are the sectors that will be most affected by these economic conditions? The following is a list and explanation.

1. Foods  

This one is actually quite ironic since the future of Indonesia economy still relies on imports to meet domestic needs. Most of the imported foods are actually staple foods like rice, flour, sugar, beans, onion, and etc. If the weakening of the Rupiah becomes worse, the government needs to make proper regulations to keep the price of basic necessities.

Just like what we explain above, with this condition imported goods like food will become more expensive and make low income families unable to afford it. This can also cause a chain effect because with the rise of food prices, the prices of other necessities will also rise.

2. Manufacture Industry

You may have heard about this word but do you know what manufacturing really means for the future of Indonesia economy? Manufacturing is a branch of industry that operates equipment, machines and labor in a process medium to process raw materials, spare parts and other components to be produced into finished goods that have selling value.

Even though Indonesia is rich with natural resources, this country mainly produces and exports raw material. To produce better products, they still depend heavily on imported materials. In fact, it is not uncommon for them to export raw materials and import finished products.

This is certainly very unfortunate considering that the Indonesian manufacturing sector is actually able to compete with foreign products. With the strengthening of the dollar, it will be difficult for the local manufacturing industry to survive because production costs will increase significantly while income remains the same.

3. Pharmacy

For the future of Indonesia economy, It is not a secret that most of the raw materials that are used for the pharmaceutical industry in Indonesia are mostly imported. Even according to some experts, the ratio of imported material in the industry has already reached 90%. 

Just like the food sector, Indonesian pharmaceuticals, which should be an important sector, are still dependent on imports. In fact, this industry has a big role in the national health system.

If the price of imported materials increases, the price of medicines will also increase drastically. This is certainly dangerous because it could burden the state’s health insurance budget.

4. Electronic

Do you know if Indonesia is one of the biggest smartphone markets in the world? With a population around 270 million, this country is a massive potential market for electronic devices. Unfortunately, Indonesia may be seen only as a consumer and not producer of these electronic goods.

Why? Because the majority of the products are imported, mainly from China. The future of Indonesia economy actually has few electronic and technology companies but most of them also still rely on imported parts. So, if the dollar rises, the price of these products will get more and more expensive.

5. Energy

For information, even though Indonesia is able to produce its own energy like oil, gas, and electricity, it is not enough to meet domestic consumption. Because of this, Indonesia still has to import large quantities of oil from other countries to maintain its energy needs.

The future of Indonesia economy has actually started to reduce the amount of imported energy but the number is still very high. And for information, almost the majority of the imported energy will be used as subsidies for its people.

This type of subsidies actually has become the subject of debate among officials and the public because the numbers are very large and continue to burden the state budget along with the strengthening of the dollar.

The following is some information regarding the sectors most affected by the rise in the dollar. It is necessary to understand that this problem is actually quite serious because it is related to the future of Indonesia economy sustainability. So, let’s pray that the Indonesian government can handle this problem as soon as possible.

Read Also: Indonesia Maju 2045, Will This Program Become Possible?

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Prabowo-Gibran’s First 100 Day Programs has been Prepared

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Prabowo-Gibran's First 100 Day Programs

After we discuss that Prabowo expects to make Indonesia as a developed country, there will be a question, so what are of his first 100 day programs? Every country in this world has a different culture and different way to show something, including in government. For such a big and populated country like Indonesia, it can be a little bit different compared to the rest of the world.

Just like other democratic countries, Indonesia’s president and officials have a term of office for 5 years or 1 period. But, do you know if they also focus on the first 100 days during the leadership? This is actually more familiar with the president and other elite officials since they get more exposure than ordinary staff.

Prabowo-Gibran’s First 100 Day Programs

So, if the first 100 day programs are important, what about Indonesia’s future leader Prabowo-Gibran? What program will become their priority for the first 3 months of their leadership? Here is the list.

1. Free Lunch Program for Kids

During presidential debates, Prabowo-Gibran always focuses on this first 100 day programs. Even for the general public, this free lunch program is like their trademark since they are the only candidates that propose this program.

For information, some parts of Indonesia, especially in remote and quite isolated areas, still battle with malnutrition cases. Ironically, the number of cases are quite high and are starting to raise concern among the general public during the high inflation.

Even though this program still stir controversies, we all know if the reason behind this program is very good and reasonable, to reduce the number of malnutrition in children.

2. Create Better and Affordable Healthcare

Indonesia might not be a developed country but it has quite good and organized healthcare. Even though it’s not perfect, it’s affordable so many people, especially from low income families can get better treatment.

One of the main problems in Indonesia healthcare actually comes from its infrastructure. As we explained before, many remote areas still struggle with malnutrition cases, this is actually the result of lack of proper facilities and healthcare workers.

Because of this first 100 day programs, Prabowo-Gibran already plans to give free medical treatment and build better hospitals with top facilities in every district in Indonesia.

3. Increase Agriculture

Indonesia also suffers from the rising price of staple food. This is actually ironic because in the past, this country was well known as an agricultural nation where they could meet their domestic needs and even export food to neighboring countries.

Due to the first 100 day programs, Prabowo-Gibran has plans to increase agriculture productivity with multiple methods. In the master plan, this program will start from a small to national scale.

4. Education

Beside stunting, Prabowo-Gibran also focuses on improving Indonesia education facilities. Just for your information, education infrastructure such as school, library, and etc in Indonesia is not equally distributed. Some areas, usually in the big cities in Java, have very good facilities meanwhile some (remote and isolated) areas have very poor and limited facilities.

As the first 100 day programs, the new leader has plans to build more integrated schools in many areas and renovate damaged schools so they can be used safely again.

5. Eradicate Poverty

Unfortunately, poverty is still one of the biggest problems in Indonesia. Even though this country already has multiple programs and regulations to eradicate poverty, the number of low income families seem to haven’t reduced significantly.

In the master plan, Prabowo-Gibran wants to continue President Jokowi’s social program to eradicate poverty in Indonesia. During the Jokowi era, Indonesia actually has few promising programs such as social welfare cards and business assistance for small entrepreneurs that will be continued by Probowo-Gibran.

6. Increase the Salaries of Civil Servants

This first 100 day programs actually became pro and cons to the general public and government. Why? Because for Indonesia, civil servants such as government staff, teachers, healthcare workers, police, and soldiers already have good and stable salaries.

Not to mention many of the civil servants still do not have good dedication and competence. This is the main reason why this plan is still controversial especially during the high inflation right now. The increased salary may cause the price of basic necessities like food to become more expensive than before.

7. Affordable Housing

Affordable housing has become one of the main necessities especially for the younger generation. Just like other millennials and Gen Z around the world, many Indonesians can’t afford a house because it’s too expensive. With this program, the government has plans to build affordable houses with low interest in different areas. 

8. Increase GDP

For your information, taxes in Indonesia are quite high. But, in the future Prabowo still wants to establish a state revenue agency and increase GDP by 23%. With this plan, in the future there is a possibility of increasing taxes from certain sectors.

Those are the list of the first 100 day programs of Prabowo-Gibran’s leadership programs. All these programs above are listed on their official campaign website. We just hope that the plan runs smoothly and can be useful for the community.

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Indonesia Sharia Economy under Prabowo’s New Regulation

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Indonesia Sharia Economy

We may be familiar with conventional economic systems but do you know what makes the sharia economy different? The economic system of sharia provides a compromise between capitalism and socialism. Therefore, the sharia economic system applies the principles of goodness from these two economic systems.

The Islamic economic system is a new industry that has successfully gained traction at the global level. If you look at the system, particularly Islamic finance, it is based on the principles of Islamic law (Shariah) and prohibits interest-based transactions, speculation and gambling. Islamic finance promotes risk sharing, ethical investment and social responsibility.

Indonesia’s Sharia Economy Master Plan

As a country with the biggest Muslim population in the world, Indonesia has enormous potential to develop the Islamic economy. This country has long been trying to improve its sharia economy and is starting to see significant developments especially during President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) era.

With this reason, the future president and vice president Prabowo Subianto–Gibran Rakabuming Raka are committed to continuing the sharia economic and optimizing sharia economics program of the era of President Jokowi as a new motor for economic growth in Indonesia.

During the previous presidential debate, Gibran also touched on the State of Global Islamic Economy (SGIE), an indicator in sharia economy issued by Dinar Standard. He explained that in developing sharia economics the government needs to know the achievements of various countries in the world in the field of sharia economics, each of which has its own parameters.

For your information, the President of the Republic of Indonesia, Joko Widodo launched the Indonesian Sharia Economic Master Plan 2019-2024 a few years ago at the Office of the Ministry of National Development Planning, Central Jakarta. The master plan recommends four main steps and strategies as breakthrough steps and acceleration of domestic sharia economy growth. Here is the list.

1. Halal Value Chain

An inventory and mapping of obstacles to sharia economy development needs to be carried out by evaluating previous targets and achievements. For example, the main mission was to make Indonesia the center of world halal producers. Unfortunately, there are two main issues to achieve this mission, such as Halal Industrial Area and halal certification.

Even though Halal industry area has been established, the level of occupancy is still an issue which has an impact on the lack of its activity. Therefore, the formation of halal industry areas to support the domestic halal industry has not had enough visible impact. Therefore, the involvement of stakeholders, especially the private sector in bringing in investors and bringing halal industry to life, is necessary.

The second issue is the acceleration of halal certification. According to the Indonesia official, the first step is to strengthen the halal value chain by focusing on sectors that are considered potential and highly competitive.

But, considering the fact it is necessary to reconsider and re-measure the targets and timelines that have been set by the government, especially the halal certification targets at the micro and small business level.

The main target set is to accelerate certification in the upstream and raw materials sectors because products at the small business level depend on these two sectors. If both have been certified, it will be easier for small private businesses to apply for a halal self-declaration and achieve the national halal certification target.

2. Sharia Finance

Strengthening the sharia financial sector with a master plan that was outlined in the previous master plan for Indonesian Sharia Financial Architecture (SFA) and refined into the master plan.

There is a need to pay attention to the development of the sharia financial sector as a driving force for the sharia economy. Programs to increase sharia financial market share should not be limited to sharia banking consolidation actions, but also to penetration and inclusion in the wider community.

Therefore, more than one large Islamic bank is needed to increase competitiveness in the industry so that the products and services offered to the public are more competitive and efficient. A few of the many issues above need to be paid attention to and included in the preparation of the second volume of Indonesian Sharia Economic Master Plan 2024-2029.

The preparation of the next master plan is the first step in maintaining the continuity of the vision and mission of Indonesian sharia economy in the previous plan. Therefore, this regulation needs to contain strategies and priority programs for sharia economic development in Indonesia for the next 5 years and become the main reference for sharia economic stakeholders.

3. Strengthening the Small, Local Business Owner

Indonesia is famous for its economic strength that is supported by small and medium scale local business. They are the reason why the country’s economy has survived multiple global crises. 

Therefore, it is not surprising that the government makes local entrepreneurs a priority in the sharia economy master plan, especially making them the main driver of the halal value chain.

4. Strengthening the Digital Economy

With more than 270 million of population, Indonesia has become a new digital economy power not only in South East Asia but in Asia. Recently, online trading, especially e-commerce, has started to replace traditional trade in Indonesia. 

The reasons why the governments want to focus on the digital economy especially trade (e-commerce, market place) and finance (financial technology) so that it can encourage and accelerate the achievement of other strategies.

Those are the following information regarding Indonesia’s estimated plans for the sharia economy in the hands of the elected president, Prabowo. Considering its massive potential, we only hope that future master plans will give even greater positive impact. So, let’s just wait for the results.

Read Also: Indonesia Ranks among the Top 20 Global Economy

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