Tag Archives: Apple Watch

Predicting news: The top 25 headlines after the launch of the Apple watch #AppleWatchPossibleHeadlines

Predicting the news is rather hard.  There are many things you dont even know about or can anticipate, but not with all news related to Apple. Given the over 12,000 blog posts devoted to Apple over the last year from The Verge, Mac Rumors, 9to5 Mac, EnGadget, Business Insider and many others, it is easy to put together a list of potential headlines that you can anticipate with  some level of confidence.

For every angle of the news of the Apple watch there are 2 possible outcomes, the good outcome, the bad outcome. It is more likely that the average outcome is what happens, but with Apple fans it is not at all hard to be confident that every average outcome is re purposed as a feature and not a bug. Case in point: The iPhone 4 dropped calls and users were blamed for “holding it wrong“.

So lets do a thought experiment and put the various possible headlines.

  1. Apple confirms over 1 million watches sold as pre-orders exceed expectations (MacRumors)
  2. Here are the only 5 Apple stores still left where you can get appointments for your Apple Watch (Business Insider)
  3. Apple analyst says his checks indicate that demand for the Apple Watch is off the charts (VentureBeat)
  4. Hands on with 15 different Apple watches and straps (Video) – The Verge
  5. Which Apple watch should you buy (we have tried them all) – Mashable
  6. Apple watch tear down reveals 78% margins and $102 is the BOM cost – iFixit
  7. Apple watch reservations are being auctioned on eBay for $25 to $50 – Tech Crunch
  8. The genius move by Apple to force reservations and create artificial demand – Jon Gurber
  9. Apple has sold more watches in 1 week than Android Wear for the entire year – enGadget
  10. Apple has significant supply chain problems, which is creating artificial demand for reservations – ReCode
  11. Here is the list of top 100 celebrities who have bought the Apple Watch (with photos) – Business Insider
  12. What happens when I strapped my Apple watch on my cat and left it for a day – Apple insider
  13. Apple watch straps cause rashes on your wrist – Mac forums are full of people complaining about it – Mashable
  14. The 50 unintended uses of Apple watch that I never expected – Apple fanboy
  15. How we jailbroke the Apple watch to work with Android KitKat – Android Central
  16. The expected lift from Apple watch to Q3 revenues for the company- Benedict Evans
  17. Apple watch disrupts the iPad and Telecom carriers voice plans – Asymco
  18. Apple watch gets poor reviews from early users causing oversupply – Business Journals
  19. Apple watch oversold and the reviews pouring in are overwhelmingly positive – San Jose Mercury News
  20. New blog showing celebrities sporting their Apple Watch goes viral – Huffington post
  21. Watch demand in China over strips supply as Apple reroutes orders from Europe – ZdNet
  22. Notifications are overdone say users as many turn off apps on the watch – ComputerWorld
  23. How many people bought the $10K Apple watch on Wall Street – We have the answer – Business Insider
  24. 10 things you never knew you could do with your Apple watch – MacRumors
  25. Apple stock hits an all time high as watch users drive sales – CNBC

For each and every one of these headlines the opposite can also be true. Which means we don’t quite know if it will do well or not, but if you are a editor at one of these publications, I’d totally steal these headlines and start writing copy to beat the others.

#AppleWatchPossibleHeadline

Apple Watch is going to hurt Twitter the most. Law of unintended consequences

I have been reading the multiple blog posts on the Monday “Spring event” for the Apple watch.

Having worn the Microsoft band for a few months now, I think I now know what I need from a wearable. Note I did not say “watch”. I gave up wearing watches many years ago and switched to a phone for time. I really don’t have a need for a watch and so don’t many others, but they will still buy the Apple “watch”.

I used the fitbit for activity tracking, so I was not actively looking for a fitness tracker before I got the Microsoft band. Being an active user, I think that I want most is “Smart Notifications” from a wearable. That it will track some fitness is an added bonus.

With the very small form factor, it is absolutely important that the right amount of “relevant information” comes to the wearable.

If you just take an email and strip out a few things and send it to the wearable, that wont help.

What you really need is a summary of the relevant portion of the email and the ability to dismiss, delete or provide contextual reply – the relevant actions may differ on the notification itself, but the action should result in not having to pick up the phone for quick responses, which your watch can handle.

Lets look at email notifications first and email call to actions.

I am really surprised the the Microsoft band has no delete or archive actions on the emails received. Which is pretty awful actually. I am pretty sure 60% of all emails that I receive are to be deleted after reading immediately or archived. Of the remainder, I could guess that 50% of them would be able to get a simple answer – Thanks, OK, Sounds good, Approved, etc. I am surprised that does not exist on the Microsoft Band.

The notifications on the Band are not “smart”, which I suspect Apple will get right, because of 3rd party developers.

If you get a bunch of smart app developers to focus on the 8 things most folks do every day, on the phone – check news, weather, sports, finance, email, social networks,  text messages or understand who is calling, then you can pretty much drop the need to pick up your phone by 50 – 60% of the time.

So here are the 3 unintended consequences of a successful Apple Watch launch according to me.

1. The battery life on your iPhone will “increase” since you wont “pick it up and use it as often”. Since 30% (at the low-end) and 60% (at the high end) of the stuff you use the phone for now, you can get on the watch. The battery life wont increase really, but you will charge the iPhone a lot less than every day or twice a day for heavy users.

2. Breaking news alerts, weather, sports news alerts will be more contextual and smart. So you know “just in time” instead of having to scan all of Twitter or social networks to find out what’s hot.

3. Over the longer term (5-7 years) obesity will drop among the “rich who can afford Apple watches” even further. Having a fitness tracker on your wrist that also does other things motivates you to take action.

Which brings me to Twitter.

I think of Twitter a global platform for “what’s happening as it happens” even before the media organizations get to know about it. Twitter knows first. And Twitter’s job is then to let everyone else know.

Well if you can summarize what’s happening and send it via a notification in a smart way, to all those who have the watch, then you dont have as many people posting on Twitter, or retweeting, instead you will increase the # of “consumers of the Twitter feed” even more, reducing the “producers”.

The folks that are “marginal users” of Twitter will use it even less. Why? Largely because they are in it to get information, not share as much. As much as 80% of Twitter’s users consume it but post < 10 times a month.

So, I think Twitter will become less and less relevant to them and more a “protocol” which can easily replaced by other systems.

Another loser from the Apple watch will be those that depend on Advertising on the mobile (Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc).

When you have a watch and use your mobile phone a lot less, the need to view ads on your watch do not exist.

I would short Twitter big time (I should put my money where my mouth is) because I think the Apple watch will drive its value down. I might add that Twitter may go down on its own because of other issues, but the Watch adoption will drive its irrelevance even faster.